Private Pilot Licence · Practice

TAF: YMEN 150500Z 1505/1609 18015KT 9999 FEW020 PROB40 1507/1511 25020G30KT 5000 TSRA SCT025CB FM150600 24010KT 9999 SCT025 At 0900Z on the 15th, what is the probability of the CB conditions?

• A.60% probability, since PROB40 means it will probably occur
• B.40% probability of CB/TSRA intermittently between 0700Z and 1100Z on the 15th
• C.No CB conditions are forecast at 0900Z on the 15th
• D.100% certainty, since 0900Z falls inside the forecast window